{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 1, "metadata": { "tags": [ "remove_input" ] }, "outputs": [], "source": [ "path_data = '../../data/'\n", "\n", "import numpy as np\n", "import pandas as pd\n", "\n", "%matplotlib inline\n", "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", "plt.style.use('fivethirtyeight')\n", "\n", "import warnings\n", "warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# The Bootstrap\n", "A data scientist is using the data in a random sample to estimate an unknown parameter. She uses the sample to calculate the value of a statistic that she will use as her estimate. \n", "\n", "Once she has calculated the observed value of her statistic, she could just present it as her estimate and go on her merry way. But she's a data scientist. She knows that her random sample is just one of numerous possible random samples, and thus her estimate is just one of numerous plausible estimates. \n", "\n", "By how much could those estimates vary? To answer this, it appears as though she needs to draw another sample from the population, and compute a new estimate based on the new sample. But she doesn't have the resources to go back to the population and draw another sample.\n", "\n", "It looks as though the data scientist is stuck.\n", "\n", "Fortunately, a brilliant idea called *the bootstrap* can help her out. Since it is not feasible to generate new samples from the population, the bootstrap generates new random samples by a method called *resampling*: the new samples are drawn at random *from the original sample*." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "In this section, we will see how and why the bootstrap works. In the rest of the chapter, we will use the bootstrap for inference.\n", "\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Employee Compensation in the City of San Francisco\n", "[SF OpenData](https://data.sfgov.org) is a website where the City and County of San Francisco make some of their data publicly available. One of the data sets contains compensation data for employees of the City. These include medical professionals at City-run hospitals, police officers, fire fighters, transportation workers, elected officials, and all other employees of the City. \n", "\n", "Compensation data for the calendar year 2015 are in the table `sf2015`." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "sf2015 = pd.read_csv(path_data + 'san_francisco_2015.csv')" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
\n", " | Year Type | \n", "Year | \n", "Organization Group Code | \n", "Organization Group | \n", "Department Code | \n", "Department | \n", "Union Code | \n", "Union | \n", "Job Family Code | \n", "Job Family | \n", "... | \n", "Employee Identifier | \n", "Salaries | \n", "Overtime | \n", "Other Salaries | \n", "Total Salary | \n", "Retirement | \n", "Health/Dental | \n", "Other Benefits | \n", "Total Benefits | \n", "Total Compensation | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "2 | \n", "Public Works, Transportation & Commerce | \n", "WTR | \n", "PUC Water Department | \n", "21.0 | \n", "Prof & Tech Engineers - Miscellaneous, Local 21 | \n", "2400 | \n", "Lab, Pharmacy & Med Techs | \n", "... | \n", "21538 | \n", "82146.04 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "82146.04 | \n", "16942.21 | \n", "12340.88 | \n", "6337.73 | \n", "35620.82 | \n", "117766.86 | \n", "
1 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "2 | \n", "Public Works, Transportation & Commerce | \n", "DPW | \n", "General Services Agency - Public Works | \n", "12.0 | \n", "Carpet, Linoleum and Soft Tile Workers, Local 12 | \n", "7300 | \n", "Journeyman Trade | \n", "... | \n", "5459 | \n", "32165.75 | \n", "973.19 | \n", "848.96 | \n", "33987.90 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "4587.51 | \n", "2634.42 | \n", "7221.93 | \n", "41209.83 | \n", "
2 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "4 | \n", "Community Health | \n", "DPH | \n", "Public Health | \n", "790.0 | \n", "SEIU - Miscellaneous, Local 1021 | \n", "1600 | \n", "Payroll, Billing & Accounting | \n", "... | \n", "41541 | \n", "71311.00 | \n", "5757.98 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "77068.98 | \n", "14697.59 | \n", "12424.50 | \n", "6370.06 | \n", "33492.15 | \n", "110561.13 | \n", "
3 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "4 | \n", "Community Health | \n", "DPH | \n", "Public Health | \n", "351.0 | \n", "Municipal Executive Association - Miscellaneous | \n", "0900 | \n", "Management | \n", "... | \n", "26718 | \n", "28430.25 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "763.07 | \n", "29193.32 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "4223.14 | \n", "5208.51 | \n", "9431.65 | \n", "38624.97 | \n", "
4 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "2 | \n", "Public Works, Transportation & Commerce | \n", "MTA | \n", "Municipal Transportation Agency | \n", "790.0 | \n", "SEIU - Miscellaneous, Local 1021 | \n", "8200 | \n", "Protection & Apprehension | \n", "... | \n", "45810 | \n", "7948.75 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "7948.75 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "2873.17 | \n", "616.24 | \n", "3489.41 | \n", "11438.16 | \n", "
5 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "1 | \n", "Public Protection | \n", "POL | \n", "Police | \n", "911.0 | \n", "Police Officers' Association | \n", "Q000 | \n", "Police Services | \n", "... | \n", "32906 | \n", "2235.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "2235.00 | \n", "490.36 | \n", "286.72 | \n", "176.57 | \n", "953.65 | \n", "3188.65 | \n", "
6 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "4 | \n", "Community Health | \n", "DPH | \n", "Public Health | \n", "791.0 | \n", "SEIU - Staff and Per Diem Nurses, Local 1021 | \n", "2300 | \n", "Nursing | \n", "... | \n", "7506 | \n", "187247.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "11704.06 | \n", "198951.06 | \n", "37683.66 | \n", "12424.50 | \n", "11221.73 | \n", "61329.89 | \n", "260280.95 | \n", "
7 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "2 | \n", "Public Works, Transportation & Commerce | \n", "MTA | \n", "Municipal Transportation Agency | \n", "253.0 | \n", "Transport Workers - Transit Operators, Local 2... | \n", "9100 | \n", "Street Transit | \n", "... | \n", "36773 | \n", "66988.54 | \n", "3512.88 | \n", "2770.39 | \n", "73271.81 | \n", "19127.22 | \n", "13202.95 | \n", "5455.10 | \n", "37785.27 | \n", "111057.08 | \n", "
8 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "6 | \n", "General Administration & Finance | \n", "CAT | \n", "City Attorney | \n", "311.0 | \n", "Municipal Attorneys' Association | \n", "8100 | \n", "Legal & Court | \n", "... | \n", "12963 | \n", "135189.60 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "1562.50 | \n", "136752.10 | \n", "27501.81 | \n", "12424.50 | \n", "10102.97 | \n", "50029.28 | \n", "186781.38 | \n", "
9 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "3 | \n", "Human Welfare & Neighborhood Development | \n", "DSS | \n", "Human Services | \n", "535.0 | \n", "SEIU - Human Services, Local 1021 | \n", "9700 | \n", "Community Development | \n", "... | \n", "35179 | \n", "70474.77 | \n", "147.28 | \n", "1647.24 | \n", "72269.29 | \n", "14650.28 | \n", "10696.90 | \n", "5993.11 | \n", "31340.29 | \n", "103609.58 | \n", "
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3335 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "6 | \n", "General Administration & Finance | \n", "MYR | \n", "Mayor | \n", "556.0 | \n", "Elected Officials | \n", "1100 | \n", "Administrative & Mgmt (Unrep) | \n", "... | \n", "22433 | \n", "288963.55 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "288963.55 | \n", "58117.03 | \n", "12424.5 | \n", "20292.95 | \n", "90834.48 | \n", "379798.03 | \n", "
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
27308 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "1 | \n", "Public Protection | \n", "FIR | \n", "Fire Department | \n", "798.0 | \n", "Firefighters - Miscellaneous, Local 798 | \n", "H000 | \n", "Fire Services | \n", "... | \n", "43833 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "-423.76 | \n", "-423.76 | \n", "-423.76 | \n", "
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24576 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "1 | \n", "Public Protection | \n", "JUV | \n", "Juvenile Probation | \n", "790.0 | \n", "SEIU - Miscellaneous, Local 1021 | \n", "8300 | \n", "Correction & Detention | \n", "... | \n", "10517 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "-159.12 | \n", "-159.12 | \n", "-159.12 | \n", "
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499 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "6 | \n", "General Administration & Finance | \n", "ADM | \n", "General Services Agency - City Admin | \n", "164.0 | \n", "Physicians and Dentists - Miscellaneous | \n", "2500 | \n", "Med Therapy & Auxiliary | \n", "... | \n", "13746 | \n", "279311.03 | \n", "9046.92 | \n", "56742.56 | \n", "345100.51 | \n", "56211.61 | \n", "12424.50 | \n", "13482.66 | \n", "82118.77 | \n", "427219.28 | \n", "
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19177 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "6 | \n", "General Administration & Finance | \n", "RET | \n", "Retirement System | \n", "351.0 | \n", "Municipal Executive Association - Miscellaneous | \n", "1100 | \n", "Administrative & Mgmt (Unrep) | \n", "... | \n", "46881 | \n", "507831.6 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "507831.60 | \n", "105052.98 | \n", "12424.5 | \n", "23566.16 | \n", "141043.64 | \n", "648875.24 | \n", "
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8264 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "4 | \n", "Community Health | \n", "DPH | \n", "Public Health | \n", "250.0 | \n", "SEIU - Health Workers, Local 1021 | \n", "2700 | \n", "Housekeeping & Laundry | \n", "... | \n", "2712 | \n", "56531.01 | \n", "621.29 | \n", "2350.53 | \n", "59502.83 | \n", "11681.45 | \n", "12424.50 | \n", "4730.12 | \n", "28836.07 | \n", "88338.90 | \n", "
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23490 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "3 | \n", "Human Welfare & Neighborhood Development | \n", "DSS | \n", "Human Services | \n", "21.0 | \n", "Prof & Tech Engineers - Miscellaneous, Local 21 | \n", "1200 | \n", "Personnel | \n", "... | \n", "43280 | \n", "92085.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "92085.00 | \n", "18979.21 | \n", "12424.50 | \n", "7567.93 | \n", "38971.64 | \n", "131056.64 | \n", "
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... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
23644 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "5 | \n", "Culture & Recreation | \n", "FAM | \n", "Fine Arts Museum | \n", "351.0 | \n", "Municipal Executive Association - Miscellaneous | \n", "0900 | \n", "Management | \n", "... | \n", "35997 | \n", "118427.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "118427.00 | \n", "23833.74 | \n", "12424.50 | \n", "24506.58 | \n", "60764.82 | \n", "179191.82 | \n", "
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25486 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "1 | \n", "Public Protection | \n", "POL | \n", "Police | \n", "911.0 | \n", "Police Officers' Association | \n", "Q000 | \n", "Police Services | \n", "... | \n", "32237 | \n", "140578.74 | \n", "95.73 | \n", "10759.56 | \n", "151434.03 | \n", "28046.17 | \n", "12424.50 | \n", "2569.95 | \n", "43040.62 | \n", "194474.65 | \n", "
11368 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "1 | \n", "Public Protection | \n", "CRT | \n", "Superior Court | \n", "195.0 | \n", "Court Unrepresented Professionals | \n", "SCRT | \n", "SF Superior Court | \n", "... | \n", "43867 | \n", "68656.96 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "3000.00 | \n", "71656.96 | \n", "13250.87 | \n", "7778.27 | \n", "5949.31 | \n", "26978.45 | \n", "98635.41 | \n", "
25489 | \n", "Calendar | \n", "2015 | \n", "4 | \n", "Community Health | \n", "DPH | \n", "Public Health | \n", "856.0 | \n", "Teamsters - Miscellaneous, Local 856 | \n", "2400 | \n", "Lab, Pharmacy & Med Techs | \n", "... | \n", "27976 | \n", "107416.03 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "107416.03 | \n", "22139.02 | \n", "12424.50 | \n", "8208.83 | \n", "42772.35 | \n", "150188.38 | \n", "
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... | \n", "... | \n", "
42983 | \n", "61349.71 | \n", "
42984 | \n", "132788.81 | \n", "
42986 | \n", "73295.59 | \n", "
42987 | \n", "19973.37 | \n", "
42988 | \n", "55812.90 | \n", "
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---|---|---|
0 | \n", "100639.945000 | \n", "113009.80850 | \n", "
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2 | \n", "106650.085125 | \n", "116872.21000 | \n", "
3 | \n", "101855.280000 | \n", "111880.11000 | \n", "
4 | \n", "98633.755000 | \n", "113396.61500 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
95 | \n", "103042.430000 | \n", "117401.49500 | \n", "
96 | \n", "97683.995000 | \n", "113182.87500 | \n", "
97 | \n", "111704.995000 | \n", "121917.01000 | \n", "
98 | \n", "105761.655000 | \n", "117376.24225 | \n", "
99 | \n", "104795.530000 | \n", "116920.50500 | \n", "
100 rows × 2 columns
\n", "